Friday, July 20, 2012

The Future

For Father's Day, some of my children downloaded a trio of books to my Kindle. One is a history of the famous Hatfield-McCoy blood feud in the Ozark mountains - now a movie, I understand. Interesting, if confusing reading. The families intermarried and fought on both sides of the Civil War in the US. Some of the "Northern" Hatfields/McCoys were slave owners; some of the "Southern" branches of both families did not own slaves. Go figure. Of this, more another time.

A second book is called "2052," and is a calculated prediction of what our world will look like in 2052 - forty years hence. It is well documented, with many experts in various fields contributing expertise to the enterprise.What I have learned to date is that our world, particularly the Western world, is living in a manner that would require 1.5 earths to sustain life as we now know it. This over consumption will continue until either we reach a collapse point, or governments get real about living in a steady-state economy rather than a "growth-despite-everything" model.

Reading this sobering, but fascinating treatise has prompted my thinking in a couple of directions. I think of some of the people I know locally, in a booming economy, who live very high off the hog. A lake cottage, a big "fifth wheel," two powerful trucks, a couple of ATVs, a brace of snowmobiles, and an annual trip to the warmth of the southern hemisphere. This may not be typical of Albertans, but it the standard everyone who works in the oil patch aims for. I can't imagine what percentage of the earth's bounty such a lifestyle consumes. My lifestyle - much simpler - consumes plenty. This one? God knows.

Despite the appearance of wealth that such a lifestyle gives, the plain fact is that these people are virtual slaves to the oil company they work for. Their slavery is economic, rather than physical. Once they become used to the six figure income they draw by working six or seven days weekly, at least twelve hours a day (Albertans work more hours per year than people in any other Canadian province), they feel a great need to adopt "the lifestyle." That lifestyle is the one I described above. The slavery aspect comes when you tote up the monthly payments that such a lifestyle entails. It is a staggering amount. Attempts made by more than one individual that I know to escape the work pattern of the oil patch has met with failure, because no one is willing to give up "the lifestyle," but without an oil patch salary, the lifestyle cannot be sustained. They are stuck. Family life suffers, marriage collapse, addicts crowd in, but the 'beat goes on.' And the earth pays the ultimate price which will one day swamp all of us, and force changes that no one is willing to even contemplate in the midst of a boom.

The authors of the study I am reading, "2050, a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years," tell us that as the Third World catches up with us, our lifestyles will stagnate and then begin to sink. How will our people tolerate this without depression and madness of other kinds? More importantly, how can we, those of us who are becoming conscious of this now, make an impression on others, or even begin to shrink our own lifestyles to survival levels?

This future, bleak, but not terminal, will not be my future. It will be the future of my great-grandchildren and their children. Already the Western dream of each generation being "better off" than the previous one is grinding to a halt. I wonder how the "typical" Albertan great-grandchildren will live in 2052 or 2072?

I can understand how people are drawn to religious fundamentalism. It solves a lot of problems and removes the anguish of thinking of these things. Armageddon is coming, so care of the earth is irrelevant, and if I am  "saved" I will go to heaven. Problem solved. "Gas up the RV, honey, we're off to the mountains! We'll say a prayer before we go, so God will be our co-pilot on the road."

So I am left with: "What can I do today, in the face of these facts? I believe God has given us the earth to care for and nourish, as well as use. How much clout or power do I have to make an impact on the future that is coming?" Does this raise any questions for you, dear reader, or will you think of becoming a fundamentalist to set the whole issue aside?



No comments:

Post a Comment